Modi-Covid19 is hypothetical! It differs by assumption from Covid19 in one respect: It poses the same health risk to all cohorts of the population. Workforce health is therefore more at stake than under the actual Covid19 pandemic. For this contingency a qualitative simulation is made of the health-cum-economic policy and politics challenges posed by a Modi-Covid19 epidemic. The simulation suggests that they would be markedly different from the Covid19 one.
Why is this of interest today? Modi-simulations are useful because governments will take their lessons from the current pandemic to better prepare for more pandemics to come. But viruses are born out of chance. Pandemics defense planning should therefore be based on mutation contingency simulation if different contingencies pose markedly different policy challenges. The Modi-Covid19 simulation suggests that pandemic defense planning should not solely be based on the actual lessons learned from the Covid19 event only, but also on a set of modi-virus simulations, of which the Modi-Covid19 simulation is an example of.
The starting point of the simulation are economies which have fallen immediately upon the arrival of the virus into a Nash-type protectionism equilibrium such as that of mid-March 2020. In a static model in which the disease is under control of lockdown policies, economic output depends on workforce health and politics optimizes the lockdown-intensity by heeding the political tradeoff between individual freedom and economic success. In this supply-side bio-macroeconomic framework of Modi- Covid19, quite different policy challenges arise compared to the Covid19 event, that can feed into an emerging contingency pandemics defense planning.
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